The Democratic Dilemma
The Democrats and the Case Against Immediate Withdrawal
In 2008, the Democratic presidential candidate will undoubtedly accentuate the incompetent strategy employed by the Bush Administration in Iraq. Democrats uniformly oppose the war in Iraq; however, none of the serious Democratic contenders will endorse immediate disengagement.
The following factors prevent Democratic frontrunners from supporting instantaneous disentanglement:
- Immediate withdrawal is infeasible. Logistical issues will complicate significant adjustments to American troop-levels and policy modifications will probably be institutionalized gradually.
- Intensified ethnic cleansing might follow America’s disengagement. Sectarian conflict may erupt outside Iraq, Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible.
- Iraq’s neighbors will become increasingly involved in Iraq following America’s withdrawal. Turkey may invade northern Iraq; Iran may dominate Southern Iraq.
- Without America’s support, Iraq’s fledgling government will collapse. Without centralized authority, Iraq may become a breeding ground for Muslim militants.
- Militarily engagement secures America's access to Iraqi oil.
Hillary Clinton, Barak Obama, and John Edwards oppose immediate withdrawal. Obama and Clinton cite security concerns, Edwards notes the likeliness of intensified sectarian conflict. If elected, any of these frontrunners will initiate redeployment or gradual troop reductions, but not immediately. Only New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson endorses immediate withdrawal; to hasten withdrawal, Richardson is even prepared to abandon equipment.
Another Democratic hopeful, Senator Joe Biden, endorses the partitioning of Iraq into three semi-autonomous states. Iraqi Kurds would dominate northern Iraq, Shia factions would govern southern Iraq, and Sunni factions would control western Iraq. Iraq’s oil reserves are concentrated in the North and the South, and Biden endorses oil-revenue sharing, at least initially. Variations of Biden’s intriguing plan are popular among Iraqi Kurds, and ethnic cleansing campaigns have already partitioned Iraq’s population. However, aspects of the plan are problematic: Granting autonomy to Iraqi Kurdistan would embolden Kurdish succession movements in Iran and Turkey; Iran might dominate autonomous Southern Iraq; the plan is not especially popular among Iraqi Sunnis and would undermine the Iraqi government; American troops would have to oversee the partitioning process and America’s military would remain deployed indefinitely.
Richardson and Biden both have impeccable foreign policy credentials, but neither will win the Democratic nomination (although either may be selected as a running mate by one of the frontrunners). Edwards, Clinton, or Obama will almost certainly win the nomination; and the candidate that does win must redeploy military personnel in a manner which addresses the varying situations within Iraq. Different approaches are necessary in different regions; Kurdish troops in northern Iraq are ready to independently police Iraqi Kurdistan, but a large American military presence will remain necessary in southern and western Iraq. In southern Iraq, the U.S. should emphasize peacekeeping and mediate between conflicting Shia factions. In western Iraq, the American military should focus on counterterrorism.
Since America invaded Iraq in 2003, Iraq’s infrastructure has collapsed and its citizenry has been terrorized. The U.S. must not abandon Iraqis and America’s next president must competently institute development programs to help rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure. The Iraqi government depends on America’s military presence and premature withdrawal will insure that Iraq remains a decentralized nation. The vastness of Iraq’s oil resources is also relevant; Iraq’s reserves and oil-facilities cannot be left unprotected. Iraq must continue to export oil; Iraq cannot develop without oil-revenue. America’s military presence in Iraq protects the oil industry and secures America's access to Iraqi oil.
The Democratic Presidential Nominee must appreciate the complex situation in Iraq. America’s next president must shift troop levels gradually and make readjustments in accordance with the complex situation on the ground in Iraq. Immediate disengagement is logistically impossible and the ramifications of withdrawal might be disastrous. America must win the peace before ending the War; Americans must be patient.
J.G.
