Obama's Foreign Policy Challenges Toward Russia
Washington-Moscow Relations Under New US President Barack Obama
Jan 25, 2009
While Bush started his presidency with a cooperative relationship with Moscow, particularly in the “war on terror”, tensions appeared as soon as 2004. Recently, in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Secretary of State nominee Hilary Clinton stated that toward Russia, the Obama Administration would “seek a future of cooperative engagement ... on matters of strategic importance, while standing up strongly for American values and international norms,” as reported by Jim Lobe of IPS.
Internal Challenges for Obama
So far, Moscow has shown optimism about seing substantial change under Obama and has refrained from heavy confrontational rhetoric with Washington since his election. But for Obama, his biggest challenge may be to stand up to the pressure from his own team of former Clinton advisors, some known for their antipathies toward Russia.
The Clinton Administration's level of contempt and disregard for Russian concerns was astonishing: Clinton broke the promise President Bush Sr. had made about not expanding NATO into Eastern Europe, he completely ignored Moscow's interests in the Balkan, the Caucasus and Central Asia and he pushed Russia to implement destructive economic policies that resulted in unimaginable capital flight while creating a class of uncontrollable oligarchs.
Unless Obama honestly seeks to understand Russian grievances and perceived prejudice and accepts to engage Moscow in an equal-to-equal relationship, seeking “cooperative engagement” on Washington's unconditional terms will fail.
Points of Contention and Opportunities for Cooperation
Many points of contention exist between Washington and Moscow. On one hand, the United States are worried over Russia's use of energy as a geopolitical tool and perceives some of the Kremlin's moves – especially toward Europe's dependency on Russian gas – as political blackmail.
On the other hand, Russia is worried about NATO's expansion toward its borders and the perception that US-NATO presence in Afghanistan is designed to curb Russian influence in Central Asia. There is also the issue of the US missile defense system deployment in Eastern Europe, officially directed toward “rogue states” but that Moscow insists is a threat to its national security.
However, cooperation between the two powers could cover several areas, particularly in Afghanistan. Russia has already agreed to let NATO use its territory for dispatching non-military supplies for its troops based in Afghanistan, as an alternative to the unreliable Pakistan route. Russia would also play a major role in any wider regional security initiative conserning the war-torn country.
In the context of Obama's stated desire to reach out to the Muslim World and move away from “clash of civilization” rhetoric, the United States could also learn a lot from Russia. In spite of severe criticism over Moscow's past military operations in Chechnya, Russia has built an impressive collaborative relationship with the Muslim World in recent years, culminating with an observer seat at the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
Russia's Relations with Europe
Nevertheless, in seems that at the heart of US-Russia relations the biggest issue is still influence over Europe, as if the Cold War never ended. Just before leaving office, Bush used the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia war over South Ossetia to push for aggressive policies related to security and energy in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.
Bilateral security pacts were signed with several Eastern European states – including Poland – with a last pact signed on January 9 with Georgia, which could pave the way for a permanent US military presence in the Caucasus. Also, it is unlikely that Ukraine would have provoked Russia into recently cutting gas supplies toward Europe without US acknowledgment.
However, the so-called “gas war” over unpaid Ukrainian debts to Russia and the latter's desire to stop subsidizing energy sold to Ukraine in the context of collapsing world prices – especially with an anti-Russian government in Kiev – has not made European countries like France or Germany more fearful or critical of Russian energetic leverage like Bush Administration stategists would have hoped. In the opposite, the gas cut in the middle of the winter seems to have brought Western European capitals to realize the need for closer energy cooperation and coordination with Russia, while Ukraine was pointed out as the culprit in the conflict.
If Obama wants to build a foreign policy built around multilateral cooperation with all European allies – and refrain from dividing references to “Old” and “New” Europe – he will need to acknowledge the discomfort of countries like France, Germany, Spain, Italy or Greece over US-Russian tensions as well as their misgivings over further NATO expansion at the risk of generating Russian hostility which would hurt them far more than it would hurt the United States. There lies the heart of diverging US-Europe visions over Russian relations.
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